ABSTRACT
Objective:To explore the risk factors of poor renal prognosis in patients with coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG)-associated acute kidney injury (AKI), and establish a preliminary clinical risk prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in CABG-associated AKI patients, and evaluate its predictive efficacy.Methods:It was a retrospective, observational cohort study. The study subjects were patients who underwent CABG at Central China Fuwai Hospital from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020, with a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)>60 ml·min -1·(1.73 m 2) -1 and postoperative complication of AKI. The patients were followed up for 90 days after discharge from hospital. The endpoint event was defined as progression to CKD after 90 days of the occurrence of CABG-associated AKI. The patients were divided into CKD group and non-CKD group based on whether they experienced endpoint events. The baseline clinical data were compared between the two groups. The logistic regression model was used to analyze the risk factors of endpoint event. The receiver-operating characteristic curve was drawn to evaluate the performance of the clinical risk prediction model for predicting poor renal prognosis in CABG-associated AKI patients. Results:A total of 124 CABG-associated AKI patients were enrolled in the study, including 95 males and 29 females, aged (62.57±9.61) years old. Thirty-eight patients (30.8%) progressed to new-onset CKD 90 days after CABG-associated AKI. Compared with non-CKD group, CKD group had lower preoperative hemoglobin ( t=2.778, P=0.006) and baseline eGFR ( t=3.603, P<0.001), higher proportion of women ( χ2=10.714, P=0.001), and higher preoperative blood NT-proBNP ( Z=-2.150, P=0.030) and discharged serum creatinine ( Z=-5.290, P<0.001). The multivariate logistic regression analysis results revealed that female ( OR=5.179, 95% CI 1.535-17.477, P=0.008), high preoperative blood NT-proBNP ( OR=1.049, 95% CI 1.004-1.095, P=0.032), low baseline eGFR ( OR=0.928, 95% CI 0.889-0.968, P=0.001), and high serum creatinine at discharge ( OR=1.019, 95% CI 1.009-1.029, P<0.001) were independent influencing factors of CABG-associated AKI to CKD. The clinical risk prediction model including female, preoperative blood NT-proBNP, preoperative baseline eGFR, and serum creatinine at discharge produced a moderate performance for predicting CABG-associated AKI to CKD ( AUC=0.872, 95% CI 0.806-0.939, P<0.001). Conclusion:Patients with CABG-associated AKI are at high risks for new-onset CKD. Female, preoperative high NT-proBNP, preoperative low baseline eGFR and high serum creatinine at discharge can help identify patients with a high risk of CABG-associated AKI to CKD.